Coffee Market Summary for the Week of December 16–20, 2024
Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Weaker Dollar and Declining Brazil Crop Forecasts
- Arabica Performance: March 2025 Arabica futures closed the week at 325 cents/pound, slightly up from the previous week's 319.50 cents.
- Robusta Performance: In contrast, Robusta prices dropped, closing at $5,002/ton compared to $5,184/ton the previous week.
Brazil’s Coffee Production Forecast
The consulting group from Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's total coffee production for the 2025/26 season at approximately 62.45 million bags, a 5% year-on-year decline.
- Arabica Production: Expected to drop by 15%, reaching only 38.35 million bags.
- Robusta Production: Estimated at 24.1 million bags.
Colombia’s Coffee Production Outlook
Colombia, the largest producer of wet-processed Arabica, is projected to produce around 13 million bags in the current coffee season (October 2024 to September 2025), marking a 3.95% increase compared to the previous season. Favorable weather conditions have significantly contributed to this improvement.
Vietnam’s Harvest Update
Market analyst Jack Scoville from The Price Futures Group noted that Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta producer, is ramping up supplies as its delayed harvest progresses following recent heavy rains.
Cocoa and Coffee Market Dynamics
Both coffee and cocoa prices are expected to remain high due to weather-related uncertainties:
- Cocoa Prices: Cocoa futures surpassed $12,000/ton for the first time amid concerns over production in Côte d’Ivoire. Prices have nearly tripled in 2024 due to poor harvests in West Africa.
- Supply and Demand: The global cocoa stock-to-use ratio is at 27%, the lowest in 47 years. Since mid-November, cocoa prices in the U.S. have surged over 60%, while London cocoa prices have doubled since late October.
Coffee Price Trends
Arabica is trading near a record high of 350 cents/pound, driven by fears of a poor harvest in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer and exporter. Brazil has reportedly sold 79% of its 2024/25 coffee production, up from 69% at the same time last year.
In Vietnam, extended rains have significantly delayed the Robusta harvest, further impacting global coffee supplies.
This week’s market movements highlight the sensitivity of coffee and cocoa markets to weather patterns and supply disruptions, underscoring the interconnected nature of global agricultural commodities.