Coffee Market Summary for the Week of December 16–20, 2024

Coffee Market Summary for the Week of December 16–20, 2024
Date Submitted: 23/12/2024 02:20 PM

Coffee Market Summary for the Week of December 16–20, 2024

Arabica Coffee Rebounds Amid Weaker Dollar and Declining Brazil Crop Forecasts

Brazil’s Coffee Production Forecast

The consulting group from Safras & Mercado estimates Brazil's total coffee production for the 2025/26 season at approximately 62.45 million bags, a 5% year-on-year decline.

Colombia’s Coffee Production Outlook

Colombia, the largest producer of wet-processed Arabica, is projected to produce around 13 million bags in the current coffee season (October 2024 to September 2025), marking a 3.95% increase compared to the previous season. Favorable weather conditions have significantly contributed to this improvement.

Vietnam’s Harvest Update

Market analyst Jack Scoville from The Price Futures Group noted that Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta producer, is ramping up supplies as its delayed harvest progresses following recent heavy rains.

Cocoa and Coffee Market Dynamics

Both coffee and cocoa prices are expected to remain high due to weather-related uncertainties:

Coffee Price Trends

Arabica is trading near a record high of 350 cents/pound, driven by fears of a poor harvest in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer and exporter. Brazil has reportedly sold 79% of its 2024/25 coffee production, up from 69% at the same time last year.

In Vietnam, extended rains have significantly delayed the Robusta harvest, further impacting global coffee supplies.

This week’s market movements highlight the sensitivity of coffee and cocoa markets to weather patterns and supply disruptions, underscoring the interconnected nature of global agricultural commodities.

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